How we calculate returns
This page covers the arithmetic behind every number on the track record pages: the dates, the prices, the formula. It says nothing about why a rotation was called — that's a separate question.
Start and end of a rotation
A rotation is one holding period: a start date and price, an end date and price, and the percentage between them. It begins when the system records a new position in a representative ETF for a theme, and ends when that position closes — either because the next rotation replaces it, or because it's still open. A still-open rotation is calculated the same way, against the most recently recorded price rather than a final one.
Entry and exit price
Entry price is a live market quote for the representative ETF, captured the moment a new rotation is recorded. If a quote isn't available, the rotation is still recorded with a blank entry price rather than a guessed one, and no return is calculated until a price exists.
Exit price is captured the same way: a fresh quote for the same ETF, fetched the moment the position closes. If that fetch fails, the last price successfully recorded for the position is used instead.
The return formula
Return is exit price divided by entry price, minus one, expressed as a percentage and rounded to one decimal place. It's the price return of the representative ETF itself, nothing layered on top.
Every rotation is in the record
Every rotation enters the record once its 30-day delay passes — wins and losses alike. Nothing is removed for turning out badly, and nothing is left out for not fitting a narrative. The rotation table shows only the most recent several, with a count of how many more exist — a display limit, not an exclusion. Every average and cumulative figure draws from the full history, not just what's listed.
One kind of rotation carries no return: if its paper trade never filled, no exit price is recorded and none is computed. That's deliberate — a return against a position never held would look real without being real. It still counts toward the total, just with no percentage, and it's excluded from every average.
The early weeks
The record also includes rotations from the earliest weeks after this system launched, while its automatic theme classification was still being corrected as real-world edge cases turned up. Those early rotations were not edited or removed once the classification improved. They're part of the same continuous history as every rotation since.
The 30-day delay
Every rotation is held back from public view for 30 days after it's recorded, open or closed. That delay exists so this page can't be used to reverse-engineer the position the system holds right now. Subscribers don't see this delay — the dashboard shows the current position live, with the same entry price and return calculation described here.
What “illustrative, not a recommendation” means
The representative ETF shown for each rotation is illustrative only. It exists to give the rotation's return a real, tradeable instrument to measure against. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that ETF, in the current record or any past one.
Paper accounts, not real money
Every signal — Daily and Intraday alike — is executed on a paper trading account. The prices and returns described on this page reflect what that paper account would have earned, not real money, and not an audited brokerage statement.
See the numbers this methodology produces: